Disruptor scan - September 2025
Disruptor scan - September 2025
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Commentary
Key shifts in the quarter from June 2025 reveal cumulative pressures intensifying across economic, social, political, technological, and environmental domains, with complex implications for New Zealand’s play, active recreation, and sport sector.
Key shifts
Cost-of-living and socioeconomic strain
- Inflationary pressures remain high, fixed incomes are under strain, and public funding reallocations are amplifying hardship for older adults and vulnerable groups. More restrictive social and health funding formulas are eroding equity, increasing access barriers, and driving down discretionary spending and participation.
Public funding volatility and declining support
- Central government is flagging legislation to cap local government rates, further reducing councils’ ability to support infrastructure, services, and grassroots sport and recreation initiatives.
Democratic shifts and Treaty tensions
- Centralisation of decision-making is heightening community disengagement and threatening Māori partnership models, even as public support for te reo Māori grows. Treaty reforms and decisions over access to significant recreation spaces (e.g., Tongariro) pose further uncertainty.
Polarisation, diversity, and social challenges
- Anti-diversity rhetoric, far-right mobilisation, and AI-driven misinformation are eroding social cohesion and undermining inclusion and safety in communities. Political polarisation makes proactive engagement around equity and wellbeing non-negotiable for the sector.
Technological disruption and misinformation
- Generative AI hype has failed to yield productivity gains in most business pilots, while the proliferation of AI-powered misinformation, privacy concerns, and digital health risks all present new threats to reputation, safety, and participant engagement.
Workforce and volunteer shortages
- Rising compliance burdens, burnout, and financial stress are eroding workforce stability and making it harder to attract and keep volunteers.
Environmental fatigue
- National resolve on climate change is weakening amid a global economic downturn - even as physical impacts (climate-related insurance rises, flood risk, event disruptions) intensify, with councils and individuals left to shoulder climate adaptation costs.
Emerging “active by necessity” trends
- Lower-income and marginalised groups are shifting toward necessity-driven physical activity (e.g., walking), realigning participation patterns and signalling a need for new engagement strategies.
Implications and key questions for the sector
|
Key shift |
Implication for Sector |
Key questions for Sector |
|---|---|---|
| Cost-of-living and socioeconomic strain intensifies | Participation and attendance fall, inequities worsen for older adults, Māori, and lower-income groups. | How can more affordable, accessible, and inclusive opportunities be provided for those most affected? Are there innovative delivery or partnership models that can protect vulnerable populations and sustain participation? |
| Declining public funding and social policy volatility | Reduced funding accelerates deterioration of facilities, limits investment, and shrinks programme reach. | How can alternative funding and resource-sharing models be developed? What advocacy or impact measurement can best defend sector resources in a tough fiscal environment? |
| Centralisation of government and Treaty partnership tensions | Democratic engagement and Māori partnership models threatened; bicultural innovation at risk. | What approaches can secure and strengthen bicultural partnership and community engagement under constrained or centralised settings? |
| Political polarisation and anti-diversity rhetoric | Sector's social licence threatened; inclusion and safety practices under heightened scrutiny. | Are proactive, transparent, and community-led engagement strategies robust enough to maintain legitimacy? How is the sector measuring and communicating its inclusion and safety outcomes? |
| Technology-driven misinformation and productivity gaps | AI-driven misinformation and failed productivity gains pose reputational and engagement risks. | What digital literacy, information integrity, and privacy strategies are required to build trust? How can the sector harness technology for genuine value while managing new risks? |
| Workforce and volunteer strain | Burnout, compliance burden, and economic stress erode workforce and volunteer base. | What concrete supports, simplifications, or redesigns will sustain the current workforce and attract new volunteers? |
| Weakening environmental resolve and climate adaptation burden | Facility costs and disruption risk rise; climate adaptation costs shifted onto sector and communities. | How can the sector drive or participate in collaborative environmental action to manage risks and build resilience? What new models for climate adaptation and sustainability are appropriate? |
| Active by necessity: changing participation patterns | Engagement shifts to informal, inexpensive activity - especially among low-income groups. | Is the sector's strategy sufficiently agile to support informal and unstructured play/active recreation? How is the sector measuring, resourcing, and valuing these emerging patterns? |
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