Disruptor scan – May 2025
Disruptor scan – May 2025
Download
Commentary
This summary highlights major disruptors and opportunities facing New Zealand’s sport and recreation sector over the next two to five years. It is designed to help sector leaders anticipate change, adapt strategies, and guide decision-making.
Social investment and equity: Shifting priorities
- The government is investing in social wellbeing through a $190 million Social Investment Fund and increased funding for health, education, and disability support. However, tighter benefit eligibility, reduced KiwiSaver contributions, and higher thresholds for pay equity claims are creating tension and sparking public protest, particularly among women.
- These changes are increasing community unease and have implications for equity and participation in sport and recreation, especially for low-income groups.
Governance and Treaty relationships: Erosion and reassessment
- The role in governance of the Treaty of Waitangi is being reconsidered, with reviews of the Waitangi Tribunal and omission of Treaty principles in new legislation. This raises concerns about diminished Treaty influence, weakened environmental protections and reduced public trust.
- New regulatory requirements for sports clubs and the arrival of international online gambling firms are creating additional pressures and may reduce community funding.
Economic outlook: Recovery amid inequality
- GDP growth is forecast at 2.9–3% over the next three years, but GDP per capita is unlikely to return to pre-2023 levels until 2028. Unemployment is set to peak at 5%.
- Wage growth is subdued, and a third of New Zealanders have savings or investments below $50,000. Economic hardship threatens affordability and access to sport and recreation.
- The Māori economy is growing, particularly in high-skilled sectors, but overall entrepreneurship remains below the national average. Businesses face global trade disruptions, supply chain issues, and rapid but often unproductive AI adoption.
Technological acceleration and disruption
- AI, digital gaming, and health tech are advancing rapidly. The government has released an AI framework, but uncertainty remains about extracting value from these technologies.
- AI’s influence in education raises concerns about critical thinking and literacy. Regulatory scrutiny of tech companies is increasing, and facial recognition is becoming more common.
- Affordable exoskeletons and AI-driven mental health tools are expanding participation opportunities, but the spread of misinformation and digital divides are growing.
Sector sustainability and social cohesion
- Administrative burdens and compliance requirements threaten volunteer recruitment and the viability of community clubs.
- International travel disruptions and economic pressures are compounding operational challenges. Social cohesion is under pressure, with declining trust in government and increased protests.
- New Zealand lags Australia in social cohesion, and the spread of misinformation is contributing to a more volatile and fragile environment.
Volatility, fragility and regression
- Rising economic and geopolitical uncertainty, driven by trade disruptions and shifting US policies, is impacting the sector.
- Mental health and wellbeing, particularly among youth, remain poor by international standards. High emigration and lower immigration are straining employers and service providers.
- Climate risks are increasing, with some properties potentially becoming uninsurable. There is a sense of regression in international cooperation and climate action.
Implications and key questions for the sector
|
Area |
Implications |
Key questions |
|---|---|---|
| Social/Policy | New funding creates partnership opportunities, but tighter benefits may limit participation. | Are programmes aligned with new wellbeing priorities? Are Treaty obligations being met? |
| Economic/Workforce | Rising inequality threatens access; funding sources are shifting; volunteer burnout is a risk. | How can activities remain affordable? What new funding models can be pursued? |
| Technological | Rapid AI adoption changes management and engagement but may widen digital divides. | Are AI and digital tools enhancing engagement while safeguarding privacy and inclusion? |
| Environmental | Climate change and infrastructure shortages threaten facilities and access. | Are we planning for climate resilience and collaborating on facility access? |
| Sector specific | Wellbeing, inclusion and safety are under scrutiny; new sport forms challenge traditional values. | How are participant safety and inclusion ensured? Are we prepared for new sport formats? |
Share
