What we are seeing

New Zealand's play, active recreation and sport system is entering a more constrained and contested period. Deepening fiscal austerity, growing Treaty tensions, and widening inequality are tightening public and household budgets just as demand for free or low-cost opportunities rises. At the same time, geopolitical fragmentation, rapid datafication of youth activity, and intensifying climate and nature risks are reshaping how talent pathways, community participation, and infrastructure can be sustained. Together, these shifts point to a permanently tougher funding and operating environment, with sharper equity risks and a stronger premium on new partnership, governance, and delivery models.

Key Shifts

Deepening fiscal austerity and permanent funding constraints

• Government fiscal restraint is accelerating with further public service cuts, tighter procurement rules, local government rates capping, and procurement expectations for "more with less." Agencies face baseline cuts beyond those already made and stronger pressure to evidence value, co-fund, or commercialise activity, raising substantial equity risks for participation and facility access.

Escalating Treaty partnership tensions and centralised political power

• Tension over Te Tiriti has sharpened with iwi and education leaders launching urgent Waitangi Tribunal claims following removal of Treaty duties from school boards. Simultaneously, the UN has agreed to hear complaints of systemic discrimination against Māori, amplifying international scrutiny. Regional governance reforms proposing mayor-led bodies and central oversight signal more centralised political power and possible disruption to environmental and transport responsibilities.

Widening socio-economic inequality and material hardship

• Evidence points to worsening material hardship and social exclusion. Around 900,000 New Zealanders may face moderate to severe food insecurity (up sharply over a decade), with growing youth homelessness also reported. Charities report declining donations and reduced government support despite rising demand. These trends intensify barriers to participation and increase demand for free or subsidised opportunities and wraparound support. Sport club membership costs have increased 25% on average, yet 12% of sports clubs' report decreased revenue in 2025.

Eroding economic confidence and cautious household spending

• Narratives of New Zealand as an economy in decline have strengthened despite some stabilisation signals. Low public trust in government economic management, flat or falling house prices, and declining charitable donations all reinforce caution in household and council spending, intensifying pressure on discretionary sport and recreation budgets.

Geopolitical fragmentation and disruption to international sport

• Global politics are fragmenting as major powers prioritise national interests over multilateral cooperation, creating higher-risk environments for travel, security, and cross-border sport partnerships. Harsher migration regimes, visa uncertainties, and US travel bans (even with athlete exemptions) threaten international talent pipelines, tours, and tournaments.

Datafication and digital mediation of youth activity

• New digital platforms for sport and youth performance (e.g., Coach Squad) extend datafication deeper into community settings, potentially lifting skills and access while raising data and privacy considerations. Combined with evidence of escalating youth social media use after school at the expense of sport and enriching activities, these trends raise questions about healthy digital balances, informed consent, and governance of participant-level performance data.

Intensifying climate and nature risks, declining climate policy commitment

• Climate and nature risks are intensifying with new global temperature records, faster ocean warming, and widespread exposure to flood-prone infrastructure. Yet national and international policy signals show weakening commitment to emissions reduction and climate cooperation, fracturing previous cross-party consensus and pointing to the need for critical infrastructure vulnerability assessment and collaborative action among asset owners, users, and communities.

Implications and key questions for the sector